Articles written by Nikolas Gvosdev
By Nikolas Gvosdev
30 Jul 2010 |
World Politics Review
Negotiations are set to resume in September between Iran and the P5+1
countries with an eye to resolve of the stand-off over Iran's nuclear program. The
question is whether something akin to the 2003 Libyan breakthrough is
possible. By that scenario, Iran would stop all of
its efforts to achieve a nuclear weapons breakout capability and in return, sanctions would be lifted and security guarantees would be extended.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
23 Jul 2010 |
World Politics Review
The 2014 Afghan security plan unveiled by President Hamid Karzai this
week at the international conference in Kabul raises once again the
question of whether the U.S. and NATO are moving towards a 21st century
variant of the
"Najibullah strategy"
-- named for the leader of the Afghan government that the Soviets left behind -- as they seek to determine their end game in Afghanistan.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
16 Jul 2010 |
World Politics Review
U.S. strategies in two key fronts of the ongoing struggle against
terrorism and extremism -- Afghanistan and Somalia -- are predicated on
one critical element: the eventual emergence of a central government
that can establish its writ throughout the territory nominally under its
jurisdiction. And in both cases, the central governments that
exist on paper seem to offer little hope for success.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
13 Jul 2010 |
World Politics Review
The debate over whether or not we have entered a "post-American world"
has become predictably stale. In one corner are the "declinists" who talk of the debilitating costs of America's imperial overstretch, while in the other are the optimists, who say that even if the U.S. is facing some bad numbers, every other great power is in an even worse boat. Both sides, in a way, are right.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
09 Jul 2010 |
World Politics Review
With all of the comparisons between the presidencies of
Barack Obama and Franklin D. Roosevelt, it is surprising that one of
FDR's most famous programs has not emerged as a possible model for U.S.
policy today: Lend-Lease. Many smaller countries in the world cannot afford to purchase new defense systems. But they do have the resources to pay for
maintenance costs and personnel to use the equipment.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
02 Jul 2010 |
World Politics Review
Invariably, when Americans engage in nation-building exercises around
the world, it is hoped that the indigenous leaders that emerge will be
cast in the mold of our Founding Fathers. Inevitably, we are disappointed when
the Hamid Karzais, the Nouri al-Malikis and others fail to live up to
these often-idealized expectations. Maybe it would help if we
substituted a different set of historical names and role models.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
25 Jun 2010 |
World Politics Review
The Obama administration is running up against the political clock in Afghanistan. The president, by
reviewing Afghan strategy and taking personal ownership of the war last
December, reset the timer. But now he needs to show tangible success by
the end of the year in order to sustain the public's commitment. And changing personnel doesn't get at the heart of the question.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
18 Jun 2010 |
World Politics Review
Will the Deepwater Horizon disaster have a similar, long-lasting
geopolitical impact as the Three Mile Island accident 30 years ago? Expanded offshore drilling was meant to provide the U.S. economy with
some breathing room -- and Washington with some geopolitical flexibility. Now, unexpectedly, there is a moratorium on any new offshore drilling, knocking the administration's energy security policy out of kilter.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
11 Jun 2010 |
World Politics Review
Does the new Iran sanctions resolution passed by the U.N. Security Council represent a diplomatic victory for the Obama
administration, or have the measures been so diluted
that they are not likely to be effective? And how significant is Russia's support for a fourth round of sanctions that it initially
opposed? To answer these questions, the vote at Turtle Bay needs to be put into a
larger context.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
04 Jun 2010 |
World Politics Review
Over the past week, the Obama administration's position on Israel exhibited what, in U.S. domestic political terms, amount to tectonic
shifts. When combined with public and
direct criticism a few months back of Israel's settlements policy, they add up, in the eyes of domestic observers, to "throwing Israel under the bus." But the same shifts are viewed overseas as relatively anemic, cosmetic changes.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
28 May 2010 |
World Politics Review
Since the end of the Cold War, Washington policymakers have been trying,
with limited degrees of success, to transform Cold War alliances into
post-Cold War partnerships able and willing to share the burden of
globally defined security missions. Some states, to be sure, have been
interested. But
NATO continues to wrestle with the whole concept of "out of
area" missions, and building a new "global alliance" will be easier said than done.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
21 May 2010 |
World Politics Review
The curtain rose on yet another act in the Iran drama this week. It
began with the "diplomatic breakthrough" achieved by Brazil and Turkey on the fuel swap proposal. The plot thickened with the announcement by the United States that the other permanent members
of the U.N. Security Council had agreed to discuss a draft resolution of sanctions on Iran. The details, of course, are where both agreements can be derailed.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
14 May 2010 |
World Politics Review
This week, President Barack Obama submitted the
"123 Agreement" on civilian nuclear cooperation with Russia to Congress. In theory, the move is meant to send a clear signal to the Kremlin as to the concrete rewards
available to Moscow should Russia support a new
round of sanctions against Iran in the U.N. Security Council. In practice, there are still too many variables in play to be sure the
plan will pay off.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
07 May 2010 |
World Politics Review
A few weeks ago, the United States had cautious grounds for optimism in
terms of both Iran and Iraq. Election results in Iraq had opened the
possibility of a more inclusive national government being formed, and there seemed to be an emerging
international consensus that Iran's nuclear program was deserving of
sanctions. The events of
the last few days, however, now call both assumptions into question.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
30 Apr 2010 |
World Politics Review
If the global order is
increasingly defined by the Euro-Atlantic West and
an emerging, looser Russo-Chinese coalition, the IBSA grouping of India, Brazil and South Africa is a reminder that
there is also a bloc of "independents" whose allegiance to one or the
other is not guaranteed. The Euro-Atlantic world should be proactive in reaching out to this organization that
explicitly defines itself
as a club of democracies.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
23 Apr 2010 |
World Politics Review
The IBSA and BRIC summit meetings held last week in Brasilia seem to confirm that any Iran sanctions resolution
likely to secure passage in the United Nations Security Council will not
live up to the Obama administration's expectations. Given the emerging consensus among the leaders of the emerging "world
without the West," it is clear that President Barack Obama's "Plan
A"
is not surviving contact with the enemy.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
16 Apr 2010 |
World Politics Review
After months of speculation over whether Russia and China would come on
board for a new round of sanctions against Iran, the parameters of a
new United Nations Security Council resolution appear to be taking
shape. However, two obstacles remain: the actual crafting of any resolution -- and
whether the final product will pass muster with the U.S. Congress.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
09 Apr 2010 |
World Politics Review
Is there a method to Afghan President Hamid Karzai's "madness"? At first
glance, his recent actions -- including harsh criticism of U.S.
policies, a threat to join the Taliban resistance, diplomatic
maneuverings in recent visits to Tehran and Beijing, and outreach to
former domestic enemies -- might seem "troubling" at best, and
"troubled" at worst. But on closer inspection, they all appear to have a
logical purpose: to hedge Karzai's bets.
By Nikolas Gvosdev
02 Apr 2010 |
World Politics Review
A reasonable definition of success in Iraq would include depriving
al-Qaida of a base, closing Iraq's borders to foreign fighters, and the
emergence of a central government capable of ensuring some degree of
stability, without repressive methods or too close an alignment with
Iran. Given those criteria, has Iraq's democracy delivered a result
that will allow the United States to indeed proclaim victory?
By Nikolas Gvosdev
26 Mar 2010 |
World Politics Review
Some foreign policy analysts believe that President Barack Obama's
legislative victory on health care reform this week will have a positive
impact on his ability to make progress in the foreign policy realm. But the White House is not out of the woods just yet. For success, Obama will have to demonstrate that he can convince members of Congress to
sign on to his long-term vision for restoring American global
leadership.
